Nel's New Day

July 24, 2023

Russian Invasion of Ukraine – 518 days

In the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, foreign strikes hit the city of Odesa, most recently a Ukrainian Orthodox Church, 25 architectural monuments, and homes. The cathedral destroyed by Russian President Vladimir Putin had been rebuilt after Soviet leader Joseph Stalin demolished the early 19th-century building in 1936. As usual, Russia’s defense ministry falsely claims that its forces avoid civilian infrastructure cultural and historical objects. The strikes on Odesa is part of Russia’s plan to erase Ukrainian culture and identity. Within the first 15 months of the invasion, Russia has deliberately hit 1,700 museums, archives, and libraries. In the Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia regions, Russian strikes are killing more people.

Russia is building a new Gulag system for Ukrainians—journalists, war-crimes investigators, and specialized groups—employing arrest, murder, imprisonment, and torture chambers in Ukrainian territories under Russian occupation. With no connection to Russia’s invasion, the gulag is part of a long-term plan. Thus far at least 40 prison camps are located in Russia and Belarus along with 63 formal and informal prisons in occupied Ukraine containing about 10,000 Ukrainians. Russia plans 25 new prison colonies and six detention centers in occupied Ukrainian territory by 2026.

Most of the current ones contain civilians arrested or abducted in occupied territory. The Gulag’s major purpose is slave labor: Ukrainians are forced to dig trenches and graves while building fortifications for Russian troops. Civilian arrests can be for tying Ukrainian colors to a bicycle or for no reason at alls; occupants may be forced to fight for Russia on the front lines.

In 2014, four years after Putin occupied Crimea, the southern peninsula of Ukraine, he completed the 12-mile-long Kerch bridge, a critical land route to provide Russian invaders with troops, weapons, and fuel. The bridge was closed on July 17 after two Ukrainian drones struck it, collapsing part of the roadway structure. A re-opened lane was closed four days later after another Ukrainian drone strike.

Meanwhile Ukraine hit Russian ammo dumps in Crimea, forcing evacuations and canceling train services. Ukrainian security officials also took credit for two drones hitting non-residential buildings in Moscow. In retaliation, Russians has launched its sixth air attack on Kyiv this month with Iranian-made Shahed drones. Ukraine downed all the drones with its air defense systems.

Moscow officially withdrew from its agreement to allow the shipping of Ukrainian grain across the Black Sea to food-deprived parts of the world after delaying the process with naval blockade and long inspections. The 33 million tons which left Ukraine were about one-third of the country’s normal exports. The withdrawal, likely exacerbated by the damage to the bridge built by Russians, was followed by Russian strikes, one of them on a grain terminal. Estimates of over 60,000 tons of grain were destroyed last week, and grain export will probably drop by another 50 percent. Global market prices for grain increased by 8 percent while Ukrainian farmers are selling products at 20 percent below cost.

Russian drones also destroyed a grain hanger on the Danube River in Ukraine’s port town of Reni, across from NATO member Romania. It is the closest Putin has come to hitting alliance territory.

Hours after Russia blocked shipments of grain, its ambassador to Kenya wrote an opinion piece, blaming the U.S. and European Union for the collapse of the agreement while claiming that they had “used every trick” to keep Russian grain and fertilizer from the global markets:

“Now, my dear Kenyan friends, you know the whole truth about who is weaponizing food.”

Russia also invited almost 50 African countries to its second Russia-Africa Summit on Friday, hosting regions heavily relying on Ukraine for agricultural products and security. Africa’s 54 nations, the largest UN voting bloc, are the most divided about the invasion. Putin keeps saying that he will give free grain to low-income African countries. Meanwhile, the Wagner group will continue to obtain gold from countries such as Sudan and Mali. Putin uses the same appeal that he takes with China, appealing to their rejection of global powers dictating to them.

Russia may not be as successful as it wishes; polling shows positive ratings toward Russians among only a third of Africans. Despite its high profile in Africa, Russia invests relatively little in it. In 2019, Putin promised to double Russia’s trade within five years but stalled at about $14 billion in 2022. Under one percent of direct foreign investment into Africa comes from Russia and almost no humanitarian aid. Russia’s biggest connection with African countries is its “Christian” rejection of LGBTQ+ people, but it growing influence comes from Wagner mercenaries, election interference, disinformation, and arms sales. The Kremlin exchange in scholarships and cultural by the Soviet Union has almost completely disappeared.

Moscow’s rejection of the grain corridor deal also endangers Russian shipping because it turns the Black Sea into a war zone with Turkey no longer protecting shipping lanes. Russia now considers “all ships en route to Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea waters … potential carriers of military cargo. The flag countries of such vessels will be considered involved in the Ukrainian conflict on the side of the Kyiv regime.” Russia is laying sea mines in the Black Sea to interfere with grain exports and blame Ukraine.

As alternatives, Ukraine uses road and rail transport through neighbors such as Romania and Poland, annoying their farmers by driving down prices. Two million tons of grain was also shipped on the River Danube, compared to 600,000 tons the year before. 

Lithuania asked the EU to use Baltic ports for exporting Ukrainian grain. Officials think that they could annually transport 25 million tons of grain. The EU supports Ukraine’s exports of agricultural products on the “solidarity lanes” established over a year ago, moving over 45 million tons of grain, oilseed, and other products. Croatia also offered its rail network and ports on the Adriatic Sea, and Bulgaria and Greece may send Ukrainian agricultural produce by Bulgarian trains to Greek ports. The problem is Poland’s wish to ban the sale of wheat, maize, rapeseed, and sunflower seeds, starting in May, until the end of 2023.

Experts from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) found directional anti-personnel mines on the edges of the Zaporozhe Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) in a buffer zone between the site’s internal and external perimeter barriers. Mines were in a restricted area blocking access by plant personnel; none was within the site.

Putin is working on a partnership with Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko, a Putin “puppet” described as the “last European dictator,” supposedly to provide security guarantees while he increases the number of number of Russian military forces in Belarus. The strategy allows Russia to use the country in military operations against Ukraine, including air attacks and possibly nuclear weapons Putin is sending to Ukraine’s neighbor.

Wagner paramilitary personnel who moved into “temporary” camps are training the Belarus military. Lukashenko said Wagner fighters want to move into NATO member Poland. Lukashenko welcomed about 3,500 Wagner group mercenaries to Belarus to a camp about 140 miles north of the Ukrainian border. About 700 vehicles and construction equipment came with the Wagner convoys.

Putin won’t attend the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) summit in Johannesburg, South Africa, making him an even greater outcast. He faces arrest and extradition from a large number of countries, including South Africa, after the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued a warrant for Putin’s arrest. Foreign minister Sergey Lavrov will attend the summit in lieu of Putin.

Russia planted sea mines in the waters around Ukrainian ports outside the safe channels. Now the White House has warned that U.S. officials have information that Russia has added more mines in those waters with the intention of blaming Ukraine if those mines cause damage to foreign ships.

Putin’s declared he might target the civilian ships of foreign powers, threatening to escalate the war but backed down on that threat. Russia’s ambassador to the U.S. said Russia is not preparing to attack civilian ships. The U.S. Treasury and the U.S. State Department today announced additional sanctions on companies that have given Russia access to products that feed the war, provide revenue from minerals and mining, give it access to the international financial system, or provide military technology.

Russia is receiving Chinese drones labeled as heavy-duty crop-dusters for $14,000 each with potential military use, according to Russia’s government after it seized four of the same model last year in eastern Ukraine. At that time, Russia said that Ukraine planned to use them for chemical warfare. They carry payloads of almost 70 pounds and can glide at treetop level trailing a fog of liquid chemicals.

Customs officers intercepted the shipment to Russia near the border between Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. Usually, shipments of this type are not interrupted. Kyrgyzstan is considered a conduit for military goods from Western countries for Russia. Officials say that many Russia drones have Western parts, sensitive electronics including hundreds of thousands of dollars’ worth of specialized semiconductors and voltage amplifiers from Chinese and South Korean companies in February and March.

Russia is demanding a relaxation of Western sanctions to permit a major bank into a global payment system, Russian fertilizer companies’ restrictions lifted, and full access to insurance and foreign ports for its ships. He’s unlikely to be granted these requirements. 

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that Ukraine has recovered 50 percent of territory seized by Russia, but the war is far from over.

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