For the past several weeks, the convoluted new about Ukraine-Russia conflict brings confusion. Sometimes Stephen Colbert’s comedy on The Late Show brings clarification, and his interview with Margaret Brennan, the CBS News Chief Foreign Affairs correspondent and Face the Nation host, gave an excellent overview of the situation as of Thursday. These are the perspectives from two different segments of the program, what’s happening and projected economic sanctions.
This week the 39th annual Munich Security Conference (MSC) topics included pandemic strategies, climate change, and cryptocurrency, but the crisis in Ukraine and possible war loomed large over the meeting. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said the world has the greatest precarious security situation since the Cold War. Over 100 ministers and 30 heads of state and government are attending; Russia refused to send representatives.
One prediction was the start of the war on Wednesday, and naysayers tried to point out that the attacks had not begun. As Brennan stated, however, Russia’s movement toward war began with Tuesday’s cyber-attacks, specifically ones targeting Ukraine’s defense ministry and major banks, connected to Russian military intelligence officers. Described as the worst in the country’s history, these disruptions can be the beginning of Russia’s attacks.
Russia’s reason for attacking Ukraine is that the U.S. will not agree to demands for binding security guarantees, including a permanent NATO ban for Ukraine and Georgia, according to Russia. The country “will be forced to respond, including through the implementation of military-technical measures,” the Kremlin said. The U.S. refuses this demand. Ukraine is not yet on a formal track to become a NATO member soon, but Russian President Vladimir Putin, with 150,000 troops surrounding Ukraine, wants a definitive denial of Ukraine’s NATO membership immediately. Experts maintain Putin’s position is based on his ambition to not only regain the Soviet Union but also go beyond in his control of European countries. Putin says he’s pulled troops, but satellite images show no withdrawal. Russian forces also seem to be building military hospitals near the Ukrainian border.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s latest aggression is his order for his military to begin nuclear drills with ballistic and cruise missile launches along with nuclear-capable bombers and warships from Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. These drills continue Putin’s extensive military exercises along Ukraine’s border, in the Black Sea, and in neighboring Belarus during the recent weeks. Earlier this month, Russia flew two Tu-22M3 nuclear-capable bombers over Belarus. Russia has over 6,000 nuclear warheads; it launched hypersonic missiles on Saturday to show its military strength.
Russian troops in Belarus may not leave after the exercise on Sunday, causing more danger from Putin got Ukraine from its separation from Belarus. Concerned of an imminent Ukrainian offensive, Russian-backed separatists controlling part of eastern Ukraine told 700,000 women and children to evacuate the region and called on all military-age men to register to fight.
Ukrainians have been worried about false-flag incidents that can create a ruse for invading Ukraine. One may be an explosion on a gas pipeline in eastern Ukraine and explosions in the city of Luhansk. Sputnik News connected these to Ukrainian shelling, quoting someone who declared “sabotage.” These were reported on pro-Russian channels and circulated on separatist Telegram accounts. President Joe Biden has warned of Russians misinformation campaign with no evidence.
Pro-Russian forces shelled a kindergarten in eastern Ukraine, wounding three adults but no students. A howitzer shell blowing a hole through one wall scattered bricks, toys and soccer balls across the room, and an impact crater landed near a play area. The 32 artillery rounds landing in the village disrupted electricity for half the population. Two soldiers and a woman at a bus station were wounded.
Ukraine reported the killing of two of its soldiers and wounding of four others in eastern Ukraine by artillery shells fired by Russian-backed separatists. Reuters reported “the Ukrainian military … recorded 70 ceasefire violations by separatists since the start of the day compared with 66 cases over the previous 24 hours.” Since 2014, around 14,000 people have been killed in fighting between the separatists and Ukrainian government forces. According to an embedded Fox network foreign correspondent, Ukrainians did not return fire; other Ukrainian troops returned fire to other attacks only “within the confines of the [Minsk] Agreement,” which banned heavy weapons from the front.
Russian media claimed Ukrainians fired artillery over the border. Lt. General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the head of Ukraine’s armed forces, stated the alleged shelling exceeded the reach of its artillery in the region. He said the invaders “undermine infrastructure in the occupied territories, carry out chaotic shelling of settlements and deliberately produce false reports.”
In another pretext for invasion, Russia claims Ukraine is committing “crimes against humanity” in separatist regions of the country’s east, one of them Donbas. One of the accusations is genocide, but Russia fails to provide evidence or explanation.
If Russia invades Ukraine, it will “target prominent political opponents, anti-corruption activists, and Belarusian and Russian dissidents living in exile,” according to U.S. intelligence. Foreign Policy wrote:
“Russia has drafted lists of Ukrainian political figures and other prominent individuals to be targeted for either arrest or assassination in the event of a Russian assault on Ukraine. These acts, which in past Russian operations have included targeted killings, kidnappings/forced disappearances, detentions, and the use of torture, would likely target those who oppose Russian actions, including Russian and Belarusian dissidents in exile in Ukraine, journalists and anti-corruption activists, and vulnerable populations such as religious and ethnic minorities and LGBTQI+ persons.”
On Saturday, Germany and France on Saturday urged their nationals to immediately leave Ukraine and warned support for Germany nationals in Ukraine would be limited in case of invasion. France recommended people not travel to the north or east of the country and called on French citizens to leave Ukraine if they did not have a “compelling motive” to stay. The U.S., UK, and other countries had already told citizens to leave Ukraine, and Biden had said he could not get U.S. citizens out of the country if they didn’t leave at this time. At least five embassies, including the one for the U.S., have left the capital, Kyiv, for Lviv, the city farthest from Russia.
Lufthansa is the most recent airline to suspend flights to Odessa and Kyiv. Earlier ones were Austrian, owned by Lufthansa, the Dutch carrier KLM, and Norwegian. Of the 35 airlines flying into Ukraine, others have been stopped from flying by their insurers.
Economic instability is hitting the global stock markets as stocks plummet from fear of war. The Dow Jones has dropped by 1,600 points in ten days. The next few days will be the turning point between the West’s attempt at diplomacy and all-out war by a small man who wants to reinstate his Soviet regime.
Pundits still question whether Russia will actually attack Ukraine; Russia is much larger and more powerful than Ukraine, but Western allies will fund forces fighting Russia. Finland and Sweden, currently not NATO members, may change their position, and the sanctions on Putin’s oligarchs may make him unpopular with his current supporters. Other sanctions could deny Russia critical supplies such as semiconductors, causing severe economic pain.
Weather could deter Russian invasion as the 100,000 square miles of wetlands in the north thaw in March, making roads into bottlenecks. The 1,000-square-mile zone of Chernobyl, just 60 miles north of Kyiv and 240 miles south of the Belarus border is restricted because of radioactivity from the nuclear disaster. South of the Belarius border, invaders face crossing the Dnieper River, and Black Sea is the south border of Ukraine which Russia need for supplying military presence in Syria and moving ships to and from the Mediterranean. The Carpathian Mountains provide a natural barrier in Ukraine’s western region.
Putin may find himself cornered. Dictator Donald Trump (DDT) pandered to him for four years and alienated U.S. allies, denigrating NATO and rewarding corruption. Since Biden’s election, Republicans have opposed his every move, and many of them even supported Russia against Ukraine. A decade ago, Russia employed DDT’s campaign manager Paul Manafort to guarantee Ukraine didn’t join NATO and suffer economic and political instability.
Pro-DDT congressional members oppose U.S. military involvement in Ukraine. Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) said, “The last thing you ever want to do is have troops at risk.” He wants to first shut down the Nord Stream pipeline scheduled to send natural gas to western Europe. Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO) doesn’t want U.S. involvement in new foreign military entanglements. Sen. Bill Hagerty (R-TN) said U.S. “escalation … is not good for anybody concerned.” Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-WY) said, “I think we need to carefully weigh the strategic interests that the U.S. has with relation to Ukraine.”
Yet Biden’s work to unify NATO and play hardball in phone calls with Putin, including threats against Putin’s pipeline, have clearly shown his determination to protect Ukraine. According to Biden, the U.S. will maintain a united front with European allies opposed to Russia invading Ukraine. At the Munich conference, VP Kamala Harris called U.S. support for the NATO alliance “sacrosanct” with “unprecedented” economic penalties in the case of an invasion. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (R-CA) also told the conference that an attack on Ukraine would be “an attack on democracy.” Both the U.S. and EU are providing Ukraine with emergency medical equipment. Biden is making the U.S. a world leader.