The immediate problem in the nation is the GOP resistance in increasing the nation’s debt ceiling, one-fourth of it caused by former Dictator Donald Trump (DDT) and his Republicans. The same four political leaders of Congress met with President Joe Biden at the White House on May 16. He said there is “still work to do” and that staff will continue to meet daily. Biden frequently says he won’t make spending cuts in exchange for increasing the debt ceiling to pay prior U.S. debts but will discuss spending levels because they are two separate issues.
After the meeting, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) told reporters that the “structure” of the negotiations had improved, but Republicans and Democrats are far apart on a potential deal. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) took comfort in McCarthy’s acknowledgement that default was “the worst outcome” and a bipartisan bill was necessary. Top House Democrat Hakeem Jeffries (NY) told members that he considered any additional work requirements a nonstarter in the debt ceiling negotiations. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) said that “we’re not going to default, but we’re running out of time.”
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen still gives June 1 as the absolute deadline before default. By that date, congressional leaders must negotiate a deal to raise the ceiling and persuade their caucuses to vote in favor of the same bill with Biden also approving the measure. Before Congress’s looming departure from Washington for Memorial Day, the House will be in session only six days and the Senate only five. Biden will be out of the country for the next five days.
To call the debt ceiling talks a negotiation is a farce: negotiations require a give and take—and McCarthy is intent only on taking. Before the meeting, McCarthy complained that President Joe Biden didn’t want a “deal,” but McCarthy isn’t offering anything. He said he wouldn’t compromise on work requirements and refused to close tax loopholes for more revenue—in short, no compromise. Democrats have rejected the GOP’s proposal to cut non-defense discretionary spending by 27 percent across the board and resisted efforts to impose such caps for more than two years. If the veterans funding is removed from cuts, as McCarthy maintains, the cut for all discretionary spending would be 33 percent.
McCarthy claims he wants austerity, but Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) tweeted that 275 of the 317 pages of McCarthy’s debt limit bill are “giveaways to the fossil fuel industry.” Just the reduction of royalty rates for drilling on federal land costs $430 million. Taking back $71 billion from the $80 billion for the IRS in last year’s climate bill costs an additional $115 billion in lost revenue. These additions to the national debt don’t match McCarthy’s meme of “we owe it to our children.”
The GOP proposed default can push the unemployment rate near or beyond ten percent in the next quarter along with a drop in GDP of over 6 percent. Even a brief default could lower the yield on Treasury bills by $750 billion over the next decade, and the default threat is driving down stocks, damaging retirement accounts. DDT, who wants another term in the White House, has no idea of the seriousness of a default saying, “Maybe it’s—you have a bad week or a bad day.”
The government is already losing revenue from “extraordinary measures” forced on the administration since January. The same accounting maneuvers cost the federal government $260 million in 2011 and $230 million in 2013 from rising yields on Treasury bills. The average of these sums plus inflation brings the current estimate to $328 million loss added to the $115.4 billion McCarthy’s bill costs the government. Saving this amount would be big news if Republicans mentioned it but kept quiet if they spend it.
Civics classes teach the process for passing a bill: write a bill, send it to committee, hold hearings, work on changes, hold debates, and try to pass it before it might move to the other chamber. House Republicans changed the system:
- Meet in secret to put together a list of far-right desires.
- Skip committee hearings, debates, policy analysis, and pass it on the House floor without committee hearings, scrutiny, policy analysis, and permission to add amendments.
- Order the Senate to support it, even with voters opposition, with the threat of an economic catastrophe.
Success with this measure can lead to a federal abortion ban, a pardon for insurrectionists, etc. The GOP could use extortion to chop Social Security and Medicare. And civics books will need to be rewritten.
A Democratic proposal put McCarthy between the proverbial rock and hard place. He promised his far-right caucus he would strip people of benefits to cut back on the U.S. debt—at least until the next GOP president—but moderate Democratic congressional members offered to protect him as Speaker if he doesn’t default on the debts. Just one House member can call for a vote to select the Speaker, and Democratic support could keep him as Speaker. In the 2013 debt ceiling fight, Democrats made the same offer to then-Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) who later chose to resign instead of counting on his opponents. If McCarthy doesn’t reach a deal with Biden, which looks unlikely, Democrats also have the discharge petition as an option, but it requires support from some Republicans.
In a survey, only 37 percent realized that a default on the debt ceiling would cause significant rate increases, a serious fall in the stock market, and an unstable financial system. After an explanation of the problems, only 30 percent agreed the ceiling should not be increased. Forty percent say they will blame Republicans for a default, and 76 percent in a Reuters/Ipsos poll agree that a default would add financial stress on families like theirs—including 77 percent of self-described Republicans.
To continue discussions, Biden cut short a long-planned foreign trip. He still leaves on May 17 for a G7 summit in Hiroshima, Japan, but returns on May 21, skipping stops in Papua New Guinea, which would have been the first for a U.S. president, and Australia.
Across the U.S., states are holding elections on May 16, 2023, some of them primaries for lawmakers and judges along with special elections for state legislators.
Pennsylvania:
Democrats kept their narrow hold on the state House when Heather Boyd was kept her seat, replacing Democratic state Rep. Mike Zabel, who resigned after allegations of sexual harassment. A GOP majority might have passed an abortion ban.
Cherelle Parker will likely become the first Black female mayor of Philadelphia in the heavily Democratic city after she defeated eight opponents in a competitive primary to be the Democratic candidate for the general election in November. Billionaire Jeffrey Yass, Pennsylvania’s wealthiest man and a charter school advocate, gave $1 million to a group opposing another candidate, progressive Helen Gym. She came in ten points below Parker who received one-third of the Democratic votes.
In a primary, Judge Carolyn Carluccio defeated a judge who stopped the certification of the 2020 election results in support of DDT. She faces Democrat Dan McCaffery for the seat in the November general election in a court with a Democratic majority of 4-2 after the death last fall of Democrat Chief Justice Max Baer. Current court issues are the use of public funds to help women get abortions, restrictions in the sale and possession of guns, and permission to count mail-in ballots delayed by the pandemic disruptions.
Kentucky:
Attorney General Daniel Cameron, the DDT-endorsed candidate, won the GOP gubernatorial nomination defeating 11 rivals, including Kelly Craft, who served as DDT’s ambassador to the UN and Canada. In the November general election, the Black candidate opposes Gov. Andy Beshear (D) who has a 63 percent approval rating.
Incumbent Secretary of State Michael Adams fended off two challengers who cast doubts on the state’s election system. Adams, praised for running fair elections, has spoken against election deniers, calling the trend “demagoguery.”
Florida:
In a big upset, Democrat Donna Deegan flipped the Jacksonville mayor from Republican to Democratic with 52 percent of the vote in a one-third turnout. The 12th largest city in the U.S., Jacksonville was the largest city with a GOP mayor until the current one became term limited. State Gov. Ron DeSantis endorsed the GOP candidate; DeSantis’ endorsement for Kentucky’s gubernatorial candidate Kelly Craft lost to DDT’s preference.
In Thailand, a youthful democratic movement may have defeated the military control in power since a 2014 coup. The progressive Move Forward Party, led by 42-year-old Ivy League-educated business executive Pita Limjaroenrat, came in first with a predicted 152 seats in the 500-seat lower house. In second place with 141 seats was Pheu Thai, the main opposition party, led by Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the 36-year-old daughter of exiled populist former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, former miliary leader who seized office and renewed his position in a 2019 controversial election, had only 36 elected seats.
The alliance among Move Forward, Phew Thai, and smaller parties could hold 60 percent of Thailand’s lower house but perhaps not enough to oust Prayuth and his allies. Control is determined by a majority of both the 500 seats of the lower house and the 250 members of the unelected Senate, full of establishment boosters appointed by the country’s military leaders. Exact vote counts must be finished in 60 days.
Pita’s party campaigned on lessening the military and the monarchy and a faster economic growth by diversifying Thailand’s tourism-dependent economy to spread it beyond the capital of Bangkok. Ending military conscription would also improve the economy. Another aim is decriminalizing criticism of the monarchy, laws used to target and persecute political opponents. Weary of being controlled “by generals and kings,” protesters flooded the streets in 2020.