Ukrainian Invasion after Almost 80 Weeks, More World Turmoil

Ukraine:

Ukraine is the most heavily mined country in the world, Russians kill people in their homes and in general areas, and their energy sources frequently disappear. In contrast, people in Moscow are angry because they are inconvenienced by noise from drone attacks waking them up in the night. They want to know why the “international community” doesn’t rescue them from Ukrainian “terrorists.” Russians haven’t been injured, and officials claim only “minor damage” to a building and some broken windows. A few people, however, believe the drone attacks in Moscow come from the Russian government “to justify a new mobilization.” One Russian woman said that “nobody cares” unless they are personally affected.

U.S. critics of Ukraine counteroffensive condemn the country’s “slow but steady” pushback toward success. This past week, Ukrainian forces raised hopes as they breached a Russian line of defenses on the southeastern frontand pushed toward the Sea of Azov to cut off the enemy’s supplies. This first line, the most difficult, gives possibilities of a victory. Ukraine has retaken dozens of more square miles than Russia took in this year’s costly campaign. Taking back Tokmak would allow Ukraine to move toward the city of Melitopol, a major success, yet satellite images show large Russian defenses surrounding Tokmak. Even without that victory, Ukraine’s counteroffensive threatens Russia’s supply lines running from Russia’s mainline to Crimea. Ukrainian success by winter will be catastrophic for the Russians both in the fighting and feeding the Russians in Crimea, causing an exodus and the impression that they are losing.

A Russian propagandist indicated the impression of Russia’s loss by pushing President Vladimir Putin to hit Ukraine with nuclear weapons after a huge Ukrainian drone strike on the Pskov airfield, damaging or destroying several Russian aircraft. He also urged attacks on Estonia and Latvia, both NATO nations, saying that Russia should “erase them from the face of the Earth” if the drones came from there.

 To stop a Ukrainian breakthrough, Russia risks dividing its forces, according to the UK Ministry of Defense. The purpose is to continue its offensive while fighting the Ukrainian counteroffensive. Another motive is to distract Ukraine and force it to divide its troops.

The reported death of Wagner group’s leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, could also lead to food shortages for Russian troops. Prigozhin, who controlled over half the food suppliers for the defense ministry, faced 560 lawsuits in 2022 for supplying substandard food to the army. A Wagner representative said tens of thousands of fighters are blocked from working amid competition from Russia’s defense ministry and the National Guard.

China may have damaged its growing friendship with Russia after issuing a new map reflecting it took territory from other countries, including along its border with Russia. The map also takes all of Taiwan and parts of Indian territory as well as the island of Bolshoy Ussuriysky, split between Russia and China in 2008. China developed leverage by being Russia’s most powerful trading partner and may now use it with Russia’s weakening during China’s growth in strength. India, Taiwan, Malaysia, and the Philippines also have continuing territorial disputes with China.

Ukraine also states it has successfully designed and manufactured a long-range missile which can reach 435 miles or farther inside Russia, a weapon that NATO has not provided for Ukraine. After over a year fighting back against Russia inside Ukrainian territory, the invaded country started striking targets inside Russia and Crimea, illegally annexed by Russia in 2014. Ukraine’s counteroffensive is also moving into other of its areas illegally occupied by Russia.

Another Putin problem is economic although the president tries to pretend that all is well. In the last week of August, the Russian ruble’s value fell to a 16-month low against the U.S. dollars, a one-third drop since last November, from increasingly punitive Western sanctions especially on energy exports. Russia lost 47 percent of revenue in gas exports to Europe in the first half of 2023 although sales to Turkey, China, and Central Asian states brought back the income. Putin asked his Central Bank to keep Russia’s inflationary risks under control although it doubled its defense spending target for 2023 to over $100 billion, roughly equivalent to oil revenue in the year before the invasion. Russia spent $60 billion during the first half of 2023. The Central Bank in Russia raised its key interest rate to 12 percent, and one-third of Russians are reducing expenditures. Mobilization of conscripts also increased inflation from a lack of workers; Putin wishes to lift restrictions on employing teenagers as young as 14.

Two more ships successfully left Ukrainian ports to cross the Black Sea, bringing the total to six since President Volodymyr Zelensky opened the temporary corridor. Putin had tried to close it since earlier this summer

Gabon:

In other parts of the world, Gabon has become the sixth former French African colony to overthrow its Western-allied leader since 2020 and the eighth West and Central Africa’s coup in that time. With the military in control of the country, General Brice Oligui Nguema has become the transitional leader, replacing deposed President Ali Bongo whose family ruled Gabon for 55 years. Albert Ondo Ossa, Bongo’s opponent in the election a week ago, claimed the election was fraudulent, and the military annulled it before closing the country’s borders for three days and put Bongo under house arrest. Recent Niger and Mali coups were also anti-French. If the new regime cuts financial ties with the U.S., lack of exports could force the U.S. to look to Russia or China for manganese, essential to iron and steel production. The Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) urged partners led by the UN and African Union to support a quick return to constitutional order. Many Gabonese are calling for caution because Nguema was a close friend of the Bongo family.

Thailand:

After a strong but failed run by a progressive candidate for prime minister, Thailand has another conservative in the position. Thaksin Shinawatra, a former prime minister who left the country to live in exile for 15 years, has returned to serve an eight-year sentence for abuse of power and conflicts of interest. Thailand’s king commuted the sentence to one year, saying he “is loyal to the monarchy” and is now old and ill. Thaksin’s political ally Srettha Thasivin, supported by pro-military and conservative parties ousting Thaksin’s governments in 2006 and 2014, is the new prime minister.

An 11-party coalition agreed to appoint Srettha, a real estate tycoon, whose party Pheu Thai allied itself with the progressive party Move Forward against the military parties. Srettha immediately broke the progressive party’s promise to not cooperate with military leaders and ignored the voters’ wish to end military rule. The new coalition includes generals from the outgoing government who violently blocked criticism. On May 14, 2023, the Move Forward party won the most votes in parliament, almost 40 percent among the 67 parties, but could not find enough supporters among the legislative party to receive a majority for prime minister.

An Ecuador election led to a run-off on October 15 after a middle-runner in the eight candidates, anti-corruption Fernando Villavicencio, was assassinated ten days before the vote on August 20. Left-wing Luisa Gonzalez, taking 33 percent of the votes in the August election, opposes center-right Daniel Noboa, the son of a banana tycoon, following with 23.4 percent. Noboa’s father, one of the richest men in the country, unsuccessfully ran for president five times. Incumbent president Guillermo Lasso called a snap election to block impeachment attempts for accusations of embezzlement in a state-owned oil transport company. Crime in the country from cartels is a primary issue in the election.

BRICS:

Fourteen years ago, five countries representing 40 percent of the global population and one-fourth of GDP—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—joined in a lose coalition, called BRICS. Meeting in Johnnesberg, South Africa, on August 22-24, they invited six more countries to join: the Middle East countries of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Iran, and Egypt along with Ethiopia and Argentina.  The Russian embassy in South Africa posted a map of existing and possibly invited BRICS members.

The organization established the New Development, aka the BRICS bank, with Bangladesh, Egypt, and the UAE as other shareholders. They wish to escape sanctions after those placed on Russia for its Russian invasion. Russia, China, and Brazil have shifted to non-dollar currencies for cross-border transactions and tried to change currency reserves into gold from dollars. 

With no direction, BRICS voiced dissatisfaction with the West and the U.S. It has no cohesion in foreign policy, coordinated course of conduct, or official website. Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said that he doesn’t want BRICS “to be a counterpoint to the G7, G20 or the United States.” India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi warned against expansion, concerned that it will dilute its influence. South Africa officials said that over 40 countries expressed interested in joining BRICS, two dozen of them formally asking for admission.    

Chinese Xi Jinping failed to give the opening speech, instead asking his commerce minister, Wang Wentao to read it. Putin decided not to attend because of the international warrant for his arrest.

The Bankkok (Thailand) Post opposes expansion of BRICS, calling for a third group not allied with existing ones to keep countries from falling under the influence of China and Russia as well as opposing an “anti-democratic” club.

Debt Ceiling Talks, Elections

The immediate problem in the nation is the GOP resistance in increasing the nation’s debt ceiling, one-fourth of it caused by former Dictator Donald Trump (DDT) and his Republicans. The same four political leaders of Congress met with President Joe Biden at the White House on May 16. He said there is “still work to do” and that staff will continue to meet daily. Biden frequently says he won’t make spending cuts in exchange for increasing the debt ceiling to pay prior U.S. debts but will discuss spending levels because they are two separate issues.

After the meeting, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) told reporters that the “structure” of the negotiations had improved, but Republicans and Democrats are far apart on a potential deal. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) took comfort in McCarthy’s acknowledgement that default was “the worst outcome” and a bipartisan bill was necessary.  Top House Democrat Hakeem Jeffries (NY) told members that he considered any additional work requirements a nonstarter in the debt ceiling negotiations. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) said that “we’re not going to default, but we’re running out of time.”

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen still gives June 1 as the absolute deadline before default. By that date, congressional leaders must negotiate a deal to raise the ceiling and persuade their caucuses to vote in favor of the same bill with Biden also approving the measure. Before Congress’s looming departure from Washington for Memorial Day, the House will be in session only six days and the Senate only five. Biden will be out of the country for the next five days.

To call the debt ceiling talks a negotiation is a farce: negotiations require a give and take—and McCarthy is intent only on taking. Before the meeting, McCarthy complained that President Joe Biden didn’t want a “deal,” but McCarthy isn’t offering anything. He said he wouldn’t compromise on work requirements and refused to close tax loopholes for more revenue—in short, no compromise. Democrats have rejected the GOP’s proposal to cut non-defense discretionary spending by 27 percent across the board and resisted efforts to impose such caps for more than two years. If the veterans funding is removed from cuts, as McCarthy maintains, the cut for all discretionary spending would be 33 percent.

McCarthy claims he wants austerity, but Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) tweeted that 275 of the 317 pages of McCarthy’s debt limit bill are “giveaways to the fossil fuel industry.” Just the reduction of royalty rates for drilling on federal land costs $430 million. Taking back $71 billion from the $80 billion for the IRS in last year’s climate bill costs an additional $115 billion in lost revenue. These additions to the national debt don’t match McCarthy’s meme of “we owe it to our children.”

The GOP proposed default can push the unemployment rate near or beyond ten percent in the next quarter along with a drop in GDP of over 6 percent. Even a brief default could lower the yield on Treasury bills by $750 billion over the next decade, and the default threat is driving down stocks, damaging retirement accounts. DDT, who wants another term in the White House, has no idea of the seriousness of a default saying, “Maybe it’s—you have a bad week or a bad day.”

The government is already losing revenue from “extraordinary measures” forced on the administration since January. The same accounting maneuvers cost the federal government $260 million in 2011 and $230 million in 2013 from rising yields on Treasury bills. The average of these sums plus inflation brings the current estimate to $328 million loss added to the $115.4 billion McCarthy’s bill costs the government. Saving this amount would be big news if Republicans mentioned it but kept quiet if they spend it.

Civics classes teach the process for passing a bill: write a bill, send it to committee, hold hearings, work on changes, hold debates, and try to pass it before it might move to the other chamber. House Republicans changed the system:

• Meet in secret to put together a list of far-right desires.
• Skip committee hearings, debates, policy analysis, and pass it on the House floor without committee hearings, scrutiny, policy analysis, and permission to add amendments.
• Order the Senate to support it, even with voters opposition, with the threat of an economic catastrophe.

Success with this measure can lead to a federal abortion ban, a pardon for insurrectionists, etc. The GOP could use extortion to chop Social Security and Medicare. And civics books will need to be rewritten.

A Democratic proposal put McCarthy between the proverbial rock and hard place. He promised his far-right caucus he would strip people of benefits to cut back on the U.S. debt—at least until the next GOP president—but moderate Democratic congressional members offered to protect him as Speaker if he doesn’t default on the debts. Just one House member can call for a vote to select the Speaker, and Democratic support could keep him as Speaker. In the 2013 debt ceiling fight, Democrats made the same offer to then-Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) who later chose to resign instead of counting on his opponents. If McCarthy doesn’t reach a deal with Biden, which looks unlikely, Democrats also have the discharge petition as an option, but it requires support from some Republicans.

In a survey, only 37 percent realized that a default on the debt ceiling would cause significant rate increases, a serious fall in the stock market, and an unstable financial system. After an explanation of the problems, only 30 percent agreed the ceiling should not be increased. Forty percent say they will blame Republicans for a default, and 76 percent in a Reuters/Ipsos poll agree that a default would add financial stress on families like theirs—including 77 percent of self-described Republicans.

To continue discussions, Biden cut short a long-planned foreign trip. He still leaves on May 17 for a G7 summit in Hiroshima, Japan, but returns on May 21, skipping stops in Papua New Guinea, which would have been the first for a U.S. president, and Australia.

Across the U.S., states are holding elections on May 16, 2023, some of them primaries for lawmakers and judges along with special elections for state legislators.

Pennsylvania:

Democrats kept their narrow hold on the state House when Heather Boyd was kept her seat, replacing Democratic state Rep. Mike Zabel, who resigned after allegations of sexual harassment. A GOP majority might have passed an abortion ban.

Cherelle Parker will likely become the first Black female mayor of Philadelphia in the heavily Democratic city after she defeated eight opponents in a competitive primary to be the Democratic candidate for the general election in November. Billionaire Jeffrey Yass, Pennsylvania’s wealthiest man and a charter school advocate, gave $1 million to a group opposing another candidate, progressive Helen Gym. She came in ten points below Parker who received one-third of the Democratic votes.

In a primary, Judge Carolyn Carluccio defeated a judge who stopped the certification of the 2020 election results in support of DDT. She faces Democrat Dan McCaffery for the seat in the November general election in a court with a Democratic majority of 4-2 after the death last fall of Democrat Chief Justice Max Baer. Current court issues are the use of public funds to help women get abortions, restrictions in the sale and possession of guns, and permission to count mail-in ballots delayed by the pandemic disruptions.  

Kentucky:

Attorney General Daniel Cameron, the DDT-endorsed candidate, won the GOP gubernatorial nomination defeating 11 rivals, including Kelly Craft, who served as DDT’s ambassador to the UN and Canada. In the November general election, the Black candidate opposes Gov. Andy Beshear (D) who has a 63 percent approval rating.

Incumbent Secretary of State Michael Adams fended off two challengers who cast doubts on the state’s election system. Adams, praised for running fair elections, has spoken against election deniers, calling the trend “demagoguery.”

Florida:

In a big upset, Democrat Donna Deegan flipped the Jacksonville mayor from Republican to Democratic with 52 percent of the vote in a one-third turnout. The 12^th largest city in the U.S., Jacksonville was the largest city with a GOP mayor until the current one became term limited. State Gov. Ron DeSantis endorsed the GOP candidate; DeSantis’ endorsement for Kentucky’s gubernatorial candidate Kelly Craft lost to DDT’s preference.

In Thailand, a youthful democratic movement may have defeated the military control in power since a 2014 coup. The progressive Move Forward Party, led by 42-year-old Ivy League-educated business executive Pita Limjaroenrat, came in first with a predicted 152 seats in the 500-seat lower house. In second place with 141 seats was Pheu Thai, the main opposition party, led by Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the 36-year-old daughter of exiled populist former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, former miliary leader who seized office and renewed his position in a 2019 controversial election, had only 36 elected seats.

The alliance among Move Forward, Phew Thai, and smaller parties could hold 60 percent of Thailand’s lower house but perhaps not enough to oust Prayuth and his allies. Control is determined by a majority of both the 500 seats of the lower house and the 250 members of the unelected Senate, full of establishment boosters appointed by the country’s military leaders. Exact vote counts must be finished in 60 days.

Pita’s party campaigned on lessening the military and the monarchy and a faster economic growth by diversifying Thailand’s tourism-dependent economy to spread it beyond the capital of Bangkok. Ending military conscription would also improve the economy. Another aim is decriminalizing criticism of the monarchy, laws used to target and persecute political opponents. Weary of being controlled “by generals and kings,” protesters flooded the streets in 2020.