Ukraine:
Ukraine is the most heavily mined country in the world, Russians kill people in their homes and in general areas, and their energy sources frequently disappear. In contrast, people in Moscow are angry because they are inconvenienced by noise from drone attacks waking them up in the night. They want to know why the “international community” doesn’t rescue them from Ukrainian “terrorists.” Russians haven’t been injured, and officials claim only “minor damage” to a building and some broken windows. A few people, however, believe the drone attacks in Moscow come from the Russian government “to justify a new mobilization.” One Russian woman said that “nobody cares” unless they are personally affected.
U.S. critics of Ukraine counteroffensive condemn the country’s “slow but steady” pushback toward success. This past week, Ukrainian forces raised hopes as they breached a Russian line of defenses on the southeastern frontand pushed toward the Sea of Azov to cut off the enemy’s supplies. This first line, the most difficult, gives possibilities of a victory. Ukraine has retaken dozens of more square miles than Russia took in this year’s costly campaign. Taking back Tokmak would allow Ukraine to move toward the city of Melitopol, a major success, yet satellite images show large Russian defenses surrounding Tokmak. Even without that victory, Ukraine’s counteroffensive threatens Russia’s supply lines running from Russia’s mainline to Crimea. Ukrainian success by winter will be catastrophic for the Russians both in the fighting and feeding the Russians in Crimea, causing an exodus and the impression that they are losing.
A Russian propagandist indicated the impression of Russia’s loss by pushing President Vladimir Putin to hit Ukraine with nuclear weapons after a huge Ukrainian drone strike on the Pskov airfield, damaging or destroying several Russian aircraft. He also urged attacks on Estonia and Latvia, both NATO nations, saying that Russia should “erase them from the face of the Earth” if the drones came from there.
To stop a Ukrainian breakthrough, Russia risks dividing its forces, according to the UK Ministry of Defense. The purpose is to continue its offensive while fighting the Ukrainian counteroffensive. Another motive is to distract Ukraine and force it to divide its troops.
The reported death of Wagner group’s leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, could also lead to food shortages for Russian troops. Prigozhin, who controlled over half the food suppliers for the defense ministry, faced 560 lawsuits in 2022 for supplying substandard food to the army. A Wagner representative said tens of thousands of fighters are blocked from working amid competition from Russia’s defense ministry and the National Guard.
China may have damaged its growing friendship with Russia after issuing a new map reflecting it took territory from other countries, including along its border with Russia. The map also takes all of Taiwan and parts of Indian territory as well as the island of Bolshoy Ussuriysky, split between Russia and China in 2008. China developed leverage by being Russia’s most powerful trading partner and may now use it with Russia’s weakening during China’s growth in strength. India, Taiwan, Malaysia, and the Philippines also have continuing territorial disputes with China.
Ukraine also states it has successfully designed and manufactured a long-range missile which can reach 435 miles or farther inside Russia, a weapon that NATO has not provided for Ukraine. After over a year fighting back against Russia inside Ukrainian territory, the invaded country started striking targets inside Russia and Crimea, illegally annexed by Russia in 2014. Ukraine’s counteroffensive is also moving into other of its areas illegally occupied by Russia.
Another Putin problem is economic although the president tries to pretend that all is well. In the last week of August, the Russian ruble’s value fell to a 16-month low against the U.S. dollars, a one-third drop since last November, from increasingly punitive Western sanctions especially on energy exports. Russia lost 47 percent of revenue in gas exports to Europe in the first half of 2023 although sales to Turkey, China, and Central Asian states brought back the income. Putin asked his Central Bank to keep Russia’s inflationary risks under control although it doubled its defense spending target for 2023 to over $100 billion, roughly equivalent to oil revenue in the year before the invasion. Russia spent $60 billion during the first half of 2023. The Central Bank in Russia raised its key interest rate to 12 percent, and one-third of Russians are reducing expenditures. Mobilization of conscripts also increased inflation from a lack of workers; Putin wishes to lift restrictions on employing teenagers as young as 14.
Two more ships successfully left Ukrainian ports to cross the Black Sea, bringing the total to six since President Volodymyr Zelensky opened the temporary corridor. Putin had tried to close it since earlier this summer
Gabon:
In other parts of the world, Gabon has become the sixth former French African colony to overthrow its Western-allied leader since 2020 and the eighth West and Central Africa’s coup in that time. With the military in control of the country, General Brice Oligui Nguema has become the transitional leader, replacing deposed President Ali Bongo whose family ruled Gabon for 55 years. Albert Ondo Ossa, Bongo’s opponent in the election a week ago, claimed the election was fraudulent, and the military annulled it before closing the country’s borders for three days and put Bongo under house arrest. Recent Niger and Mali coups were also anti-French. If the new regime cuts financial ties with the U.S., lack of exports could force the U.S. to look to Russia or China for manganese, essential to iron and steel production. The Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) urged partners led by the UN and African Union to support a quick return to constitutional order. Many Gabonese are calling for caution because Nguema was a close friend of the Bongo family.
Thailand:
After a strong but failed run by a progressive candidate for prime minister, Thailand has another conservative in the position. Thaksin Shinawatra, a former prime minister who left the country to live in exile for 15 years, has returned to serve an eight-year sentence for abuse of power and conflicts of interest. Thailand’s king commuted the sentence to one year, saying he “is loyal to the monarchy” and is now old and ill. Thaksin’s political ally Srettha Thasivin, supported by pro-military and conservative parties ousting Thaksin’s governments in 2006 and 2014, is the new prime minister.
An 11-party coalition agreed to appoint Srettha, a real estate tycoon, whose party Pheu Thai allied itself with the progressive party Move Forward against the military parties. Srettha immediately broke the progressive party’s promise to not cooperate with military leaders and ignored the voters’ wish to end military rule. The new coalition includes generals from the outgoing government who violently blocked criticism. On May 14, 2023, the Move Forward party won the most votes in parliament, almost 40 percent among the 67 parties, but could not find enough supporters among the legislative party to receive a majority for prime minister.
An Ecuador election led to a run-off on October 15 after a middle-runner in the eight candidates, anti-corruption Fernando Villavicencio, was assassinated ten days before the vote on August 20. Left-wing Luisa Gonzalez, taking 33 percent of the votes in the August election, opposes center-right Daniel Noboa, the son of a banana tycoon, following with 23.4 percent. Noboa’s father, one of the richest men in the country, unsuccessfully ran for president five times. Incumbent president Guillermo Lasso called a snap election to block impeachment attempts for accusations of embezzlement in a state-owned oil transport company. Crime in the country from cartels is a primary issue in the election.
BRICS:
Fourteen years ago, five countries representing 40 percent of the global population and one-fourth of GDP—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—joined in a lose coalition, called BRICS. Meeting in Johnnesberg, South Africa, on August 22-24, they invited six more countries to join: the Middle East countries of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Iran, and Egypt along with Ethiopia and Argentina. The Russian embassy in South Africa posted a map of existing and possibly invited BRICS members.
The organization established the New Development, aka the BRICS bank, with Bangladesh, Egypt, and the UAE as other shareholders. They wish to escape sanctions after those placed on Russia for its Russian invasion. Russia, China, and Brazil have shifted to non-dollar currencies for cross-border transactions and tried to change currency reserves into gold from dollars.
With no direction, BRICS voiced dissatisfaction with the West and the U.S. It has no cohesion in foreign policy, coordinated course of conduct, or official website. Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said that he doesn’t want BRICS “to be a counterpoint to the G7, G20 or the United States.” India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi warned against expansion, concerned that it will dilute its influence. South Africa officials said that over 40 countries expressed interested in joining BRICS, two dozen of them formally asking for admission.
Chinese Xi Jinping failed to give the opening speech, instead asking his commerce minister, Wang Wentao to read it. Putin decided not to attend because of the international warrant for his arrest.
The Bankkok (Thailand) Post opposes expansion of BRICS, calling for a third group not allied with existing ones to keep countries from falling under the influence of China and Russia as well as opposing an “anti-democratic” club.
Nel's New Day 