House GOP Closes in on Government Shutdown

January 10 was the fifth—and last—GOP presidential candidate for 2024. Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley looked like two high school students fighting to win class president. Nothing happened to shake up the second to Deposed Donald Trump (DDT) for the position although Chris Christie’s dropping out of the race may change Nikki Haley’s position—slightly.

The current question is how long Speaker MAGA Mike Johnson will lead the House. Wednesday he met with far-right extremists in a closed session with his caucus after they began to turn on him. On Thursday, they pushed him to drop out of the topline spending deal with bipartisan senators. Rep. Greg Murphy (R-NC) summarized the situation as “nasty.” One bipartisan plan for a tax deal is to continue the 2017 business deductions in exchange for a larger child tax credit.

Hardliner GOP House members are also enraged about Judge Arthur Engoron’s refusal to permit DDT his chance to deliver the closing argument in the business fraud civil fraud trial about the amount he must pay–$370 million according to New York AG Letitia James. DDT has been ranting against the judge who was then “swatted” with a false call for police to go to his home and then received a bomb threat at 5:30 am on the morning of the closing arguments. Another DDT failure was delaying the trial for three weeks with the excuse of his mother-in-law’s death. The death didn’t affect DDT’s campaign plans: he spoke with Fox’s Sean Hannity for a town hall on Wednesday evening and plans two campaign events this coming weekend.

Hardliner Republicans claim another meeting with Johnson was about an alternative spending plant, but Johnson described the session as a “thoughtful conversation about funding options and priorities. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) warned against the GOP reneging on Johnson’s deal:

“There is nothing more to discuss. To the extent that House Republicans back away from an agreement that was just announced a few days ago, it will make clear that House Republicans are determined to shut down the government, crash the economy and hurt the American people.” 

Senate Republicans, specifically Whip John Thune (SD) and Shelly Moore Capito (WV), expressed surprise about the talks. Pragmatist Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) is preparing another short-term continuing resolution to prevent a partial government shutdown on January 19 as well as moving forward on the current agreement with Johnson. Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) said Johnson’s meeting was largely about the kind of stopgap which House Republicans could support.

Another House Republican is in danger. Last year, Rep. Andy Ogles (R-TN) filed a resolution to impeach VP Kamala Harris “for high crimes and misdemeanors.” A complaint filed against him is similar to the alleged campaign fraud that led to former Rep. George Santos’ (R-NY) expulsion. Ogles’ financial disclosure statements doesn’t include the $320,000 he personally loaned to his campaign committee in April 2022 nor the $700,000 line of credit, opened in September 2022. This $1+ million of discrepancies is sufficient for the Office of Congressional Ethics to investigate a violation of ethics and House rules.

Ogles also lied to win his seat in 2022, including now missing $25,000 donations for a burial garden for infants that never came to fruition. He complained about burdensome government regulations and called himself a victim.  

Like former Rep. George Santos (R-NY), Ogles elaborately inflated his résumé. No evidence exists in his being an “economist,” having been a law enforcement officer combating international sex trafficking, and running a consulting firm. He also lied about graduating from Vanderbilt’s business school. Ogles called himself as a “nationally recognized expert on tax policy and health care,” but he only wrote a few op-eds while an Americans for Prosperity lobbyist. The “economist” got a C in the one economics course he took—at a community college. Ogles entered college in 1990 and got a degree in liberal studies in 2007.  An examination of his work details doesn’t list most of the businesses he includes.

In early 2023, Ogles failed to meet his campaign finance reporting deadline by over a week, and his ultimate filing showed he greatly exaggerated his fundraising prowess early in his race. His treasurer was also the sole funder of a super PAC, raising questions about illegal coordination with Ogles’ campaign. He complained that ads reporting his problems came from a “billionaire in Oregon” who didn’t have anything to do with Tennessee. The “billionaire” is Oracle chair and DDT supporter Larry Ellison building a $1.2 billion campus in Nashville projected to create 8,500 jobs.

While House hardliner Republicans support Russian in its invasion of Ukraine, Senate Minority Mitch McConnell (R-KY) warned them that the state of the world is crisis, “in case anybody has forgotten.” He said that the “world is literally at war… This is the most serious international situation we have faced since the Berlin Wall came down” over three decades ago in 1989. Russia isn’t the only crisis area, according to McConnell:

“We’ve got wars that we’re all familiar with. In the Middle East, and in Europe. Iran’s proxies in Gaza, Lebanon, and Yemen attacking Israel. The Houthis actually attacking us, directly, in addition to shutting down where they can commerce in the Red Sea. Iranian proxies attacking us—our soldiers in Iraq and Syria… China of course watching all of this, concerned about next year’s election in Taiwan.”

McConnell’s statements were to impress on the Republicans for the “need to pass a supplemental [funding legislation].”

Congress faces three choices in January—agreeing on 12 appropriations bills during the month, a government shutdown, and a another continuing resolution for last year’s budget. The last alternative would force automatic cuts, including on the military, on April 30. Nondefense budgets would go from $777 billion to $736 billion; the military would lose $10 billion from its $860 billion.

Johnson has already shown his inadequacy as a leader, and upcoming events will continue to prove his failures. Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) wants an addition to a funding bill: “suspend the processing and release of new migrants.” If Johnson can’t pass its deals by February, hundreds of thousands of federal workers will be laid off with losses in everything from mail delivery to food inspection. Johnson’s approach is similar to that in 2018-2019 when lack of funding for DDT’s wall shut down the government for 34 days. Ultimately, DDT restored funding without wall funding.

On CBS Face the Nation, Johnson also claimed that House Republicans’ impeachment hearings about DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas were caused by his “dereliction of duty… done intentionally” in the border handling and his repeated lies under oath. Asked what lies, Johnson said he testified that the border was closed and secure. Margaret Brennan said the statement was a semantic argument, but Johnson called it an “objective fact.”

Johnson has also lost Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), former surrogate speaker for Kevin McCarthy (CA) who said he always had her back. McCarthy is gone, and Greene is threatening to oust Johnson because he negotiated with Democrats to fund the government. On Steve Bannon’s podcast, she said she “absolutely had it” with the speaker and told him that Republicans refused to shut down the government because they were “embarrassed.” According to Greene  “regular Americans could care less … if it shuts down.”

“They want the government to get out of their lives,” Green continued, ignoring their need for Medicare, Social Security, etc. She told Bannon:

[Note: The usually toothless Federal Election Commission (FEC) fined Greene $12,000 for alleged illegal PAC by “soliciting non-federal” funds for reposting an advertisement in which she appeared on her official Greene for Congress social media accounts. The ad raised money to oppose the elections of Sens. Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff in 2021.]

Justice Clarence Thomas has another reason for recusing himself from cases tied to DDT’s court issues. Newly obtained documents show that North Carolina Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, a far-right MAGA Republican and election denier, had private ties with Thomas’ wife, Ginni Thomas, to overturn the 2020 presidential election in favor of DDT. Robinson met with Ginni weeks after the January 6 insurrection when he spoke with her and her group Frontliners for Liberty for far-right activists working to keep DDT in the White House. He continues to downplay the insurrection, calling it “this minor little thing.”

Last year, Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX) bitterly ranted that he wanted his colleagues to “explain to me one material, meaningful, significant thing the Republican majority has done.” The GOP had made history last year—multiple ballots not once, but twice, in one year to elect two different Speakers, and passing almost all laws. This year, Roy is part of the obstructionist group refusing to pass bills. But he can cheer about one “material” thing that they have accomplished—pins. They chose a new design for their congressional lapel pins which have been delivered—only a year late. At least they’re good for one year.